Elections P2
So, the elections are over and now the fun begins! To an American audience, the German elections could be a bit confusing. NPR headlines Monday morning read, “Social Democrats Beat Merkel’s Bloc in German Elections.” This reflects the typical misunderstanding. Truth is, the SPD did win the most seats (206 out of 735.) But they are not guaranteed the chancellorship. To control the government, you need 368 seats. Instead, the “King Makers” appear to be the two parties that came in 3rd and 4th place.
It might be helpful to consider the top 6 or 7 parties on an ideological spectrum. Ranging from far-left to far-right, the spectrum would be:
The Left (Pink) – The Greens – The SPD (Red) – The CDU & CSU (Black)– The FDP (Yellow)– The AfD (Blue)
The SPD and CDU (with the CSU) represent the center left and right parties. But if one were to compare the German system to the American, Democrats cover the whole spectrum from the SPD left, while Republicans cover everything from the CDU to the right.
In Sunday night’s election, the left side got 363 seats all together.
Meanwhile, the right side got 371 seats.
So, you might think that the right won. You would be wrong. No one will work with or form coalitions with the AfD. (And practically speaking, the same goes for the Left.)
Again, comparing things to the US system can help. In America, you just have two viable parties. So, everyone to the right and left of the center is lumped together. This includes moderate voices, but also the extremes. And in an effort to gain power in 2016, the Republicans gave control to the extreme branch. In 2020, however, the centrists in the Democratic party coalesced to keep any of their extreme candidates from winning internally. In Germany, both extremes have their own parties (the Left and the AfD), and on both sides also have whole parties that fill the space between centrists and extremes (the Greens and the FDP).
In the past, a common result in German coalitions is for the two central parties (who are always the largest) to work together. This would be a mathematical possibility again this time around. However, if the Green Party and the FDP were to join forces (and the likely will) they have the numbers to choose either the CDU or the SPD as a partner. Basically, they are in the driver’s seat. The results will either be a Traffic Light Coalition (Red Yellow Green) or a Jamaica Coalition (Black Yellow Green.). And this is how multiple parties help protect governments from extremist takeovers.
It might be helpful to consider the top 6 or 7 parties on an ideological spectrum. Ranging from far-left to far-right, the spectrum would be:
The Left (Pink) – The Greens – The SPD (Red) – The CDU & CSU (Black)– The FDP (Yellow)– The AfD (Blue)
The SPD and CDU (with the CSU) represent the center left and right parties. But if one were to compare the German system to the American, Democrats cover the whole spectrum from the SPD left, while Republicans cover everything from the CDU to the right.
In Sunday night’s election, the left side got 363 seats all together.
Again, comparing things to the US system can help. In America, you just have two viable parties. So, everyone to the right and left of the center is lumped together. This includes moderate voices, but also the extremes. And in an effort to gain power in 2016, the Republicans gave control to the extreme branch. In 2020, however, the centrists in the Democratic party coalesced to keep any of their extreme candidates from winning internally. In Germany, both extremes have their own parties (the Left and the AfD), and on both sides also have whole parties that fill the space between centrists and extremes (the Greens and the FDP).
In the past, a common result in German coalitions is for the two central parties (who are always the largest) to work together. This would be a mathematical possibility again this time around. However, if the Green Party and the FDP were to join forces (and the likely will) they have the numbers to choose either the CDU or the SPD as a partner. Basically, they are in the driver’s seat. The results will either be a Traffic Light Coalition (Red Yellow Green) or a Jamaica Coalition (Black Yellow Green.). And this is how multiple parties help protect governments from extremist takeovers.
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